The Denver Nuggets were my guilty pleasure last year. My fling. Even in the game which cost Sam Mitchell his job as coach of the Raptors, I couldn’t be mad at them. Why? Well, there are a few reasons.

1: They call him Melo

Back in the old days, you know, 2003, there was a draft in the NBA that was kind of a big deal. I dunno if any of you remember it but it was quite good. Anyway, I was the idiot who said that if the Raptors got the first pick, we should take Carmelo. Okay, so I overrated him juuust a bit. But honestly, if it had shaken out that way, it wouldn’t have been too bad. I mean, he’s averaged 24.2 points per game so far in his career. What’s that, you’re saying it’s because he was jacking shots, taking bad looks, being selfish? Au contraire mon ami. This isn’t an Antoine Walker story. Just look at his advanced stats: from 2006-2008, he had a TS% above 55% (yes, he slipped a bit last year, to 53%, but I’m sure he’ll rebound). He is capable of getting to the foul line, too, and he is an extremely underrated clutch performer. Essentially, when he’s on the court, your offense is way better. You put the ball in his hands, he’ll score. That’s his role, that’s what he does. And he’s VERY good at it. He can shoot from the perimeter, he can take his man one-on-one, he can post up – this man is a threat from everywhere on the court. Yes, LeBron James Is obviously better, as he is a unique beast that we have never seen before. Carmelo isn’t asked to facilitate his team’s offense, though – he’s a traditional scoring 3, the likes of which we’ve seen before from guys like Jamal Mashburn (who was never as efficient a scorer as Carmelo). If you ask me, there’s nothing wrong with being fantastic in a traditional way. In addition, Melo brings a good attitude; generally he’s a hard worker, he doesn’t complain (even when on some seriously dysfunctional teams), and he wants to win. That’s an underrated aspect of any star’s makeup. Some players would like to win and hope they do, but are more concerned with being able to continue to make max money and be able to get big endorsements. Winning is seen as a nice bonus. Carmelo wants to win. I see in Carmelo that same drive, that will to win that’s helped make Kobe great.

2: Mr Big Shot?

I love Chauncey Billups. There, I said it. I drafted him in the 3rd round of my Fantasy Draft last year and was obviously thrilled with his trade to the Nuggets. From a basketball standpoint, I was excited to see him play with some REALLY good ballers on a team that could be one of the best in the West. From a selfish standpoint, I was excited because I thought his fantasy value had doubled or tripled. That didn’t really happen, but I was happy with having another excuse to watch the Nuggets as often as I could. As much as I love Chauncey, though, I’m not a big fan of the name ‘Mr. Big Shot’. He isn’t Robert Horry and that’s not what he brings to the table or what makes him great. What Billups brings is leadership. He brings court vision and a sixth sense for ball-distribution. He is a true field general, a leader amongst men. Rather than spout poetic about him, I’ll simply direct you to an outstanding Outside The Lines piece on the man. Read that, then tell me you don’t want to watch him play with Carmelo Anthony and the rest of the team. Speaking of which….

3: The rest of the team

This is one of the most dangerous rosters in the NBA. Now, for the sake of this article, I’m going to take all my Man Crushes and put them in the next paragraph, so if I left someone out here, that’s why. In related news, if you don’t want to read why I love Joey Graham you may want to skip number 4. But I’m getting ahead of myself, one section at a time. Let me give you some names: Kenyon Martin. Nene. J.R. Smith. Ty Lawson. Renaldo Balkman. In fact, let’s do some math here. Add those names with Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups. Multiply by the x (REALLY pushing the Lakers last year, adding to their already ever-present swagger). The result? Well, we don’t know that yet. But there aren’t a lot of If Statements for these Nuggets. Basically, the If Statement is Nene’s knee. If it holds up, the sky is the limit for these guys. They don’t have the same depth after losing Kleiza (a huge spark off the bench), but replacing Dahntay Jones with Arron Afflalo (and his much more reasonable contract) is one of the most underrated moves of the summer. Jones could defend, yes, but Afflalo isn’t bad on that end either and he is a superior offensive player. They got a steal in the draft, too, with Ty Lawson falling into their laps at #18. Other than that, this is basically the same team that came quite close to the NBA finals last year. Nothing to sneeze at. Now it’s time to put out the warning for graphic content.

4: The Man Crushes

(warning: may contain images not suitable for minors. If blatant man crushes bother you, please skip to the conclusion)

Outside of Melo and Billups? Where do I even start with this club? Well, there’s the Birdman. James and I told anyone who would listen that Bryan Colangelo needed to sign Chris Andersen when he came back from his drug suspension. Sure, Denver overpaid for him, but let’s look at this glass half-full: he took a few years off basketball mid-career, so he doesn’t have the same wear and tear on his body that most players his age do (although I guess most NBA players don’t have a few years of hard drug use under their belts). Anyway, since he has a new lease on life, my hunch is he won’t take much for granted in the future. It’s within the realm of possibility that he keeps his act up for the next few years. Anyway, fine, MAYBE he won’t be worth his contract for the last couple of years of it, but that’s beside the point. Like I mentioned in my Golden State article (link), you can like a player but not the contract. In this case, I don’t just LIKE the player – I LOVE the Birdman. This guy is an athletic freak, his work ethic is beyond reproach, and he loves doing the dirty work. He is a shot-blocking version of “Junk Yard Dog” Jerome Williams (to this day, the only Raptors jersey I wear). I just can’t say enough about this guy. If I could be any NBA player for a day (assuming LeBron and Dwight were on vacation), I’d be him. In fact, he’s so inspiring to me that I snorted an 8-ball while writing this.

Joey Graham: Most Raptors fans had a love/hate relationship with Joey. Not me. I will argue to the death that Sam Mitchell’s incessant hook did more damage to Joey’s career than any of us will ever know. It’s not easy to develop confidence when your boss threatens to fire you after every mistake. Once he was shown some faith, he played well. I challenge any Joey detractor to watch the game against the Lakers in February. The Raptors didn’t have Jose Calderon. Bosh left hurt midway through the game. Pau Gasol had a MONSTER game, and the Raptors almost won. How? Joey. He scored, rebounded, ran the floor, and did an UNREAL job defending Kobe. Sure, Kobe ended up with 36 points, but he needed 38 minutes to get it and he shot 13 of 28 in the process. He’s Kobe, he can do that against great defense. There’s a good reason the last minute of the game the entire Air Canada Centre was on its feet, chanting, “Joey, Joey, Joey”. The effort he gave guarding Kobe one-on-one was something to marvel at. And to have the energy to carry the load offensively was something Raptors fans haven’t seen often. You can claim that I’m cherry-picking Joey’s best game, which is true, but my gut opinion on Joey is that we would have seen many more of these games if the coaching staff had shown confidence in him earlier. Trust me when I tell you this: if Denver shows some faith in him, they will be VERY pleasantly surprised.

Arron Afflalo. I don’t have nearly as much to say about Afflalo. This one is simple: I watched him in college and was smitten. His vision, his shooting stroke, his motor, it’s all good. He was lost in the shuffle in Detroit, especially when they were trying to work out the Iverson/Hamilton thing, but he’s got the skills to play a much bigger role in the NBA. Nuggets fans will see what I mean this year if they didn’t get a chance to watch him at UCLA. As I said earlier, he is a more than capable replacement for Dahntay Jones – in fact, he is better. Massive coup for Denver, getting such a capable two-guard for basically nothing. Daryl Morey-esque.

Then there’s JR Smith. Just watch this.

/dick-sucking and man-whoring, back to basketball.

Is Denver the best team in the western conference? No. Until proven otherwise, the Lakers are the best. But this year I do think they took a step back (Ariza for Artest, plus a psychological thing involving Gasol and Bynum that I’ll get into another time, plus the extra year of age on Kobe and the potential mellowing after achieving his goals), meanwhile Denver has at worst stayed the same as they were last year. In fact, top to bottom I don’t see too many top-tier clubs from the West having improved, Portland notwithstanding. Am I saying they’ll win the Western Conference? Not yet, but it IS possible, and I’ll be cheering for it. My hunch is another loss to the Lakers in the Conference Finals. What I am saying, though, is that this is one of the most enjoyable teams to watch I’ve ever seen, with some of my favourite players on it as a bonus. They’re in a city that’s hard to be down on, plus they’re the underdog. Somehow, they’re underrated as hell, which is remarkable considering they finished 2nd in the West last year in both the regular and post-season. If you’re looking for a 2nd team to support after your own, consider this my pitch for the Nuggets. Portland’s got lots of talent, and I love Roy and Aldridge (both part of my fantasy team so suck on THAT, James), but they just don’t play the same brand of entertaining ball (fun fact: Portland was the slowest team in the L last season). In my G-State column I spoke about charisma – this Nuggets team has charisma. They also have a leader, confidence and more than just raw talent, they have REAL ballers. Don’t sleep on these guys. I will personally guarantee you’ll be satisfied. That’s right, the Nuggets perform or your money back! With that kind of offer, how can you NOT at least give them a chance?

Remember how crazy the West was 2-through-9 last year? We knew no one would catch the Lakers, and we knew you’d have to win close to 50 games to make the playoffs, but we had no idea how everything would shake out in the end. There was one great team in the conference, a bunch of very good teams, and then a whole bunch of crap. No Western team won between 29 (Golden State) and 46 (Phoenix) games.

Well, the East is even crazier than that this year, but the action is all in the middle. I see three teams that should easily win more than 46 games as presently constructed and only two that might finish with fewer than 29. That’s almost what happened last season, but what’s even more interesting is that, if forced to predict team records this season, I’d argue that there are ten Eastern teams that could hover around the 40-42 win mark. Here’s a look at the big clusterfuck:

Atlanta Hawks

2008-2009: 47-35. 10th in offense. 11th in defense.

You might wonder why these guys are on the list, as they had home court advantage in the playoffs last season. They’re also the only team on this list that was above-average on both ends of the court last season. Plus, they’ve got continuity – in re-signing Mike Bibby, Zaza Pachulia, and Marvin Williams, they’ve kept their core intact. Adding Joe Smith and Jeff Teague should improve their bench, too. Still, I see a couple of reasons why they could slip back in the standings. First, there’s the Jamal Crawford signing. At first glance, this seems like a positive move. He is, if only slightly, a better player statistically than Filp Murray, the man he is replacing. However, he is allergic to defense. Murray isn’t great at that end of the court either, but I’d rather have him out there than Jamal. Additionally, Murray was only out there for 24 minutes a night, which is what he’s been used to as a sparkplug scorer off the bench. Crawford has been accustomed to a more prominent role and has received significantly more minutes than that since 2003-2004, which leads me to question how this will work out. There are two potential problem scenarios here – having a bad defender on the court for too long, or having an unhappy Crawford cause problems in the locker room. In addition to all this, I see a second challenge in the way of Atlanta getting back to 47 wins, one that faces all of the teams I will cover here: other teams have improved. Atlanta went 26-7 against the other nine teams on this list last season and I believe this will be a significantly more difficult thing to do this time around. Even if they are still the best of the group, there is a smaller gulf between the Hawks and the teams who finished beneath them in the standings last year, one that might not make up for the fact that they are clearly a couple of notches away from being an elite team. Unless their young talent and/or coach Mike Woodson provides the club with improvement from within, expect a step back.

Miami Heat

2008-2009: 43-39. 20th in offense. 11th in defense.

If Jermaine O’Neal plays like he did in the first half of the decade for Indiana, and he manages to stay on the court, this team can improve. Reading the reports in Miami might make you seem optimistic about this, but I’m here to remind you that this is the same exact stuff we heard in Toronto last year. I truly hope Jermaine will be more than a half-decent jump-shooter and shot-blocker this season, but I remain very, very skeptical. Even if Jermaine O’Neal remains average, though, shouldn’t Mario Chalmers and Michael Beasley improve enough to add some wins? I’m not sure. Chalmers is a nice piece but I don’t see him being much of a game-changer this season. Beasley is more interesting – this is an extremely talented kid that deserves a bigger role than he had last season. If they park him on the block and give him the ball, he can score at will. With more minutes and more touches this season, he could help the Heat win more games. I’m worried about him, though, because Erik Spoelstra is going to try to play him at the 3. This is not his position. He’s going to struggle to guard 3s and he’s going to have a tougher time scoring. If they don’t get more offense out of Beasley and O’Neal, I think they could drop in the standings even if Wade turns in another MVP-level season – the drop-off on the defensive end from Marion/Moon to Beasley/James Jones/Q-Rich is huge.

Philadelphia 76ers

2008-2009: 41-41. 19th in offense. 13th in defense.

This team has some good players and a good coach, but there’s no way to know if they’re going to put it together, or put it together in time to really make a mark. They struggled integrating Elton Brand last year – we knew it would take some time to integrate a traditional post player into their athletic, fast-paced, turnover-causing attack, but didn’t think it’d be so difficult that everyone seemed relieved when the team’s best player was sidelined with an injury. Since last season, they’ve lost their starting point guard in Andre Miller and haven’t done much about it. Sure, he was lazy at times, but he was solid and, no, Jrue Holiday is not a replacement. This season we’ll see some improvement from Philly’s young guys, we’ll see a lot of Andre Iguodala handling the ball, and we’ll (hopefully) see a much more effective Elton Brand than we saw for bits of the 2008-2009 regular season. With the time it’ll take for this team to properly learn Eddie Jordan’s offense, though, and its still-obvious lack of shooters (even with Jason Kapono on the roster), I find it difficult to imagine them separating themselves from the pack in the East.

Chicago Bulls

2008-2009: 41-41. 14th in offense. 18th in defense.

Having John Salmons and Brad Miller around for the full season will help. So will having Luol Deng back. It even seems like Taj Gibson can contribute. So, why am I not projecting a big leap? Well, for one, they lost Ben Gordon. Complain all you want about his shot selection and his defense, but he is a very, very good player who the Bulls haven’t replaced. Before you scoff at the contested jumpers he puts up, realize he is an incredibly efficient scorer – his TS% of 57.2 is absolutely an elite number for a shooting guard, on par with that of Brandon Roy and Dwyane Wade. I’m not going to argue that he is a great defender, but Scott Skiles was able to effectively mask his defensive deficiencies for years. Please don’t think of Jannero Pargo as an adequate replacement. Still, with improvement from Derrick Rose, Tyrus Thomas, and Joakim Noah, this team might have the highest ceiling of any on this list. To finish at the top would require a fantastic coaching effort, though, and with Vinny Del Negro at the helm I am definitely not counting on it.

Detroit Pistons

2008-2009: 39-43. 21st in offense. 16th in defense.

Do not count on the Pistons finishing 21st in offensive efficiency next season. With Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva, and Chris Wilcox joining Rip Hamilton, Rodney Stuckey, Tayshaun Prince, Will Bynum, and Jason Maxiell, new coach John Kuester has plenty of scoring options to work with. Kuester is the man who re-worked the Cleveland Cavaliers’ offense last season, when they jumped from the league’s 19th-best offensive team to its 4th-best. Even though they’ve been absolutely great in previous years, Allen Iverson and Rasheed Wallace hurt the Pistons on both ends of the floor last year. The long jump shots and sub-par defense we saw from these two last season is the reason we have the term “addition by subtraction”. Detroit fans should be expect a much more functional locker room than the one Michael Curry dealt with last season, plus potentially one of the league’s top offenses. This is all good stuff. There’s a reason I’m not expecting an enormous jump in the standings, though: defense. Charlie V. and Ben Gordon will be huge boosts on the offensive end of the floor, but these guys will never be mistaken for defensive stoppers. Same with Wilcox. They’ve brought Ben Wallace back, but at this point in his career I’d argue that Kwame Brown is a more useful defensive player. I would be very impressed if Kuester managed to keep this club at around the league average next season, that’s what it would take in order to move into the upper echelon of the conference, even if these Pistons are up there with Portland in terms of offensive potency.

Indiana Pacers

2008-2009: 38-44. 17th in offense. 19th in defense.

I’m not going to tell you that the Pacers are more talented this year. They’re not – swapping Marquis Daniels, Rasho Nesterovic, and Jarrett Jack for Dahntay Jones, Tyler Hansbrough, and Earl Watson shouldn’t get any Pacers fan excited. Here’s the thing, though: these downgrades don’t prevent Indiana from winning a few more games than last year. Brandon Rush had a killer end of the season, Roy Hibbert was already a very effective center in his rookie campaign, and T.J. Ford is better than what he showed last season. I’d bet on all of them being more consistent this season. You have to hope that T.J. can stay healthy and Hibbert will cut down on the fouls, but the potential is there for 3/5ths of the Pacers starting unit (at least until Mike Dunleavy returns) to show considerable improvement. In addition to this, Danny Granger will continue the ascent to stardom that got him an All-Star berth and the Most Improved Player award in 2008-2009. I’m not fond of the Pacers’ overall plan or long-term outlook, but I won’t be at all surprised if they’re in the thick of the playoff hunt next season. I’d encourage you to pay attention to this team even if they’re not, though, as Jim O’Brien’s club played at the 3rd-fastest pace of any team last season and were a ton of fun to watch.

Charlotte Bobcats

2008-2009: 35-47. 27th in offense. 7th in defense.

The Bobcats wanted that 8th seed last year more than perhaps any franchise I’ve ever seen. Eschewing the bottom-out-and-get-draft-picks plan, coach Larry Brown pressured management into acquiring veterans Raja Bell, Boris Diaw, Vladimir Radmanovic, and Juwan Howard in the hopes of having the Bobcats’ most successful season yet. To his credit, he technically did that, as the Bobcats had previously never eclipsed the 33-win mark. Brown managed to impart his defensive wisdom on the young and old on the roster, making Charlotte one of the league’s best defensive teams by the end of the season. While I think none of this was/is in the best interest of the team’s future, I expect the Bobcats will make another charge at a low playoff seed in 2009-2010. This time, the vast majority of the key players are already used to Brown’s coaching style and this could translate into a few more wins. It’s a shame they took a step down by trading the solid Emeka Okafor for the chronically-injured Tyson Chandler, but they gained some ground by adding some much-needed wing scoring in Flip Murray and Gerald Henderson. If their defense sustains and they make some strides on the offensive end (a good start would be increasing D.J. Augustin’s minutes), then they’ll be in the mix.

Milwaukee Bucks

2008-2009: 34-48. 23rd in offense. 11th in defense.

You’ve got to love Scott Skiles, at least for the first few years he coaches a team. Even though they were overmatched some nights last season, the Bucks always competed. Even with guys like Luke Ridnour and Charlie Villanueva playing major minutes, the Bucks maintained an above-average defense and avoided toiling in the league’s cellar. Now, though, after losing three of their best players in Villanueva, Ramon Sessions and Richard Jefferson, can they be better? I say yes. The most impressive part about what Skiles accomplished last year in Milwaukee was the fact that he did it with Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut missing more than half of the season. With these guys coming back, expect a big jump on offense. And even though the Bucks failed to make any headline-grabbing news this summer, they did add some pieces to try to make up for what they gave away. Hakim Warrick, Kurt Thomas, and Carlos Delfino can contribute right away and they hope to get contributions from Ersan Ilyasova, Brandon Jennings, Jodie Meeks, and Roko Ukic as well. All this, plus the presence of the defensive-minded, brilliantly-named Luc Richard Mbah A Moute! I must say, there are plenty of reasons to be excited about the Bucks.

Toronto Raptors

2008-2009: 33-49. 22nd in offense. 22nd in defense.

Kelly Dwyer was right when he said last year’s version of Jose Calderon was only at full strength for about a third of his 68 appearances. This is the single biggest reason why I expect the Raptors to make a jump from their terrible record last season. As a Raptors fan, it pained me to watch Jose last year. This guy who couldn’t move laterally, couldn’t turn the corner on the pick and roll, and couldn’t get the proper lift on his three-point shots was not the same guy I had seen running the point in TO the year before. The guy I had seen before was a danger to shoot at all times, ran the offense perfectly, knew when to attack, and made his teammates much better. Sure, he wasn’t an all-world defender, but he wasn’t a liability on that end, either. This All-Star-worthy version of Calderon is the man who I expect to be running the team this year, and this is why I project them to jump into the playoff picture. In Jarrett Jack, Rasho Nesterovic, Amir Johnson, and Antoine Wright, the Raptors have a much-improved bench and the addition of Hedo Turkoglu into the starting lineup alongside Chris Bosh, Calderon, and Andrea Bargnani could give Toronto one of the most potent offenses in the league. Hence, there is optimism in Toronto. Don’t believe the 50-win nonsense, though – this team is still too weak defensively and at the 2-guard spot to approach that number. That is, of course, unless Bargnani drinks some magical defense-and-rebounding juice and Jay Triano does a Stan Van Gundy-esque job of getting his weak defenders to play intelligent team D.

Washington Wizards

2008-2009: 19-63. 26th in offense. 29th in defense.

I’m sure you know that this is a completely different team to the Wizards of last year. With a healthy Gilbert Arenas and Brendan Haywood, last year wouldn’t have been the nightmare that it was. Add Randy Foye and Mike Miller to the lineup, plus the coaching of Flip Saunders, and you have a team that will likely make a bigger jump than any other in 2009-2010. With a starting 5 of Arenas, Foye/Miller, Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, and Brendan Haywood, opposing defenses are in for long nights against the Wiz. The problem, of course, is that opposing offenses may be in for easy nights. As great as this Wizards team looks offensively, with the aforementioned top six plus Fabricio Oberto, DeShawn Stevenson, Nick Young, JaVale McGee, and Andray Blatche, they look bad defensively. I love Flip, but he is more of an offensive guru and I doubt there’s a coach in this league that could make this bunch into a decent defensive group. If he does, they’re better than most teams here. If he doesn’t, as I expect, well… What do you get if you’re league-best on one end and league-worst on the other? Another middle-of-the-pack club.

What does this all mean? Well, all of the above teams are flawed. Flawed enough that they won’t approach the win totals of Cleveland, Orlando, and Boston if those teams stay relatively healthy. It also means they all have talent, though, and they’re all capable of beating better Western Conference teams on a random night in February. We know that, with trades and injuries, things will change for these teams and how they rank in comparison to each other as the season goes along. When we near the end of the season, though, I’m sure it’ll be a right mess trying to figure out which teams will make it into the playoffs and which of those will be lucky enough to get the 4th and 5th seeds and avoid facing one of the aforementioned juggernauts in the first round. Sure, the vast majority of these teams won’t play a game in May or June, but they will provide us with some pretty damn good basketball during the regular season. For a guy will be flipping from game to game on League Pass every night starting in two and a half weeks, this is something to be excited about.

Ahh, G-State. The G-Men. Okay, maybe not the G-Men, though I think they’d trade their issues for one Plaxico bullet wound. Where do I even start with these guys? They have so much talent it’s ridiculous. They play entertaining ball. They have a great crowd. There’s so much to love, yet they continue to self destruct. First, their captain and rock, the ever-sane Stephen Jackson, publically declares he doesn’t like the direction of the team and wants a trade. Gets fined. Now he gets fouled up, T’d up, sent from the bench and suspended for a few days. Also, their next best player, Monta Ellis, has publically questioned whether he and new stud draft pick Stephen Curry can play together. Fans are as thrilled with this as they were when they heard about a potential Monta Ellis salary dump in September.

Speaking of salary dumps, they sold Marco Belinelli to the Raptors for just over $1.5 million in the summer (yes, they got Devean George, but the Raptors gave the Warriors cash to cover his contract this season). Not to say Belinelli’s an all-star or anything, but unless we’re talking soccer the phrase “sold a player” should be reserved for when asking for a loosey. They were rumoured to be interested in Amar’e, until Stephen Curry fell to them at #7 in the draft. Now, they’re being linked with Bosh again, but that’s pure speculation. There’s no way Colangelo is interested in trading Bosh until closer to the deadline at least. And as a Raptors fan, I certainly hope it’s not for a package “centered around Andris Biedrins”. Brandan Wright’s hurt and out for a few months. Sure, they have Anthony Randolph, but Coach Nelson is notorious for sitting young players for… well, no good reason at all. They’ve got Andris Biedrins locked in for four years at $9 million a year (And Raptors fans were complaining about Turkoglu’s contract!), Corey Maggette for four years, increasing every year from almost $9 mil this year to almost $11 million in 2012. Those two, plus Jackson and Ellis take up $40 million of salary space in 2012! They’re already several million over the cap, and, as it stands, do not figure to be a big player in free agency for a while unless they find a way to dump one of their four biggest contracts. So why do I like these guys? Why do I support this Picasso of a mismanaged and chaotic team? As a fan of the Toronto sports teams, I am a card-carrying masochist, which helps, but I can also see talent and charisma. And even with all of their problems, the Warriors just ooze talent.

In addition to Monta and Captain Jack, they have personal favourites Ronny Turiaf (don’t ask) and Corey Maggette (I’m a masochist, remember?). They have summer league sweethearts Anthony Morrow and Anthony Randolph. They have Speedy Claxton and Andris Biedrins (I can like them and hate their contracts), and most importantly, they have Stephen Curry. Ask anyone who watched the NCAA Tournament in 2008 about Stephen Curry and their faces light up. There aren’t many shooters who can throw a team on their back and carry them, yet Stephen Curry almost carried tiny Davidson all the way to the Finals; losing in the elite eight to after upsetting Gonzaga, Georgetown and Wisconsin. The team that beat them: The eventual champion Kansas Jayhawks, who won by 2 points after the potential game winning 3 didn’t drop (Curry dished, he was in double coverage). It was an awe-inspiring run. Just ask LeBron. Generally, there aren’t too many rookies who excite me. Curry, though, is something special. If nothing else, I’d be tuning in to Warriors games JUST for Curry and he doesn’t even have close to the most potential on the team. Anthony Randolph has the tools and potential to be a STUD in this league. Yes, I said it. With his skill set, if he is given a real chance by Don Nelson he could a superstar in the making like Kevin Durant (the last rookie to excite me like Steph does).

What can’t the guy do? He can shoot, he can break men down, he can pass, he can dunk, (oh can he dunk), he can rebound, he runs the floor, and he can block shots. His length and speed are things to marvel at. His nose for the ball is something that can’t be taught. His willingness to get down and dirty and do whatever’s necessary to win is endearing. I don’t even have anything else to say about him, other than if Don Nelson doesn’t let this kid on the floor he should be committed. Or shot. Either way, he shouldn’t be allowed within 500 feet of any school, gym or NBA arena. Same story with Anthony Morrow. He may not have the pure raw talent like Randolph, but he can ball and needs to be given a shot.

What other positive things can I say about the Warriors? Well, as much as it may be to their chagrin, both Captain Jack and Monta are still in the Bay Area. Say what you will about Stephen Jackson, the cat can still play. Someone should tell Nellie that he’s not a point guard or a power forward, but he still is a hell of a player on the wing. And don’t forget that Monta missed training camp and half of last season after a little workout mishap, uhhhh contract violating high speed motorcycle accident, errrr falling off a moped. I still don’t understand how you can shred your ankle on a moped. Anyway, that’s beside the point. I’m not here to talk about the past; Monta’s back, healthy, and he will have a full training camp and hopefully a full season. This can’t be a bad thing.

In fact, the thought of seeing Monta Ellis, Stephen Curry, Stephen Jackson, Anthony Randolph and Andris Biedrins together makes me turn into the Lonely Island guys when I think of it. I dunno if Nellie will let that happen, but hey, a guy can dream. And let’s not forget they still have Acie Law (another personal favourite), Morrow, Claxton, Maggette, Turiaf, and Mikki Moore on the bench. Yowzers. Yes, I said it: Yowzers. By now it should be apparent why I can support this club. They are the Raptors West. They can score 110 points a game, they can give up 110 points a game. The only difference between the two clubs is pure talent. The Raptors have good players, yes, but the talent coming out of Golden State is truly remarkable. There’s a reason I called them a Picasso. A Picasso is a chaotic mess, but it’s a thing of beauty. It’s taking pieces of a puzzle, scattering them in a random order and turning it into art. The Warriors are art on the court, a thing of beauty. As a fan of the game of basketball, I can’t wait to see what they can do this year. They had enough talent to make the playoffs last year, and this year they’ve improved the club. Sure, there’s a few ifs; mostly relating to IF Nelson actually plays the young talent he’s been blessed with, and IF they don’t make some stupid salary dump, but with that kind of talent they can’t lose! Can they? You’ll have to tune in to find out. I don’t think you’ll be disappointed, win or lose.

Ah yes a new season is upon us. It’s a time of wonderment, of unbridled optimism, of limitless possibilities. There are still a few weeks before the season starts and cold reality slaps the majority of the Association in the face, but I figured I’d get a head start. Optimism is running wild in Toronto, but there are a few pitfalls that Raptors Nation is overlooking.

First, while Jay Triano is a highly respected international coach, he is a rookie NBA head coach. The NBA game and the European game are very different (see: United States Men’s basketball teams in 2002 and 2004). Jay has never led a pro training camp. He’s never developed the battle plan for an NBA season. He’s never managed the ego and minutes of 15 grown whiny, selfish babies for an entire season. He’s never really dealt with media criticism. He also has a key new face as an assistant coach. Marc Iavaroni was a highly, highly respected defensive-minded assistant coach with Phoenix. Then he bombed out as a head coach. How will he react to what effectively is a demotion? He’s now behind a maturing head coach. Again. This is the same place his career was 7 years ago when D’Antoni was hired in Phoenix. Will he demand the same respect in the room that he had? The other difficulty Jay has is implementing a system. In Toronto it’s a blank slate with so many new players. The blank slate can work out in either really good or really bad ways; totally depending on how it is used by the coach, and how it is accepted by the players. Will Jay, a rookie coach, be able to capture a team made up of some fairly veteran players? Will he and Iavaroni be able to come up with a defensive scheme that can hide Hedo Turkoglu completely? That will help out Jose Calderon? Will he be able to teach Demar DeRozan to adapt to the NBA game quick enough to be a presence on the floor?

These are just some of the problems the Raptors face. They’ve got a rookie at the 2, a defensively-challenged player at the 3, and a question mark at the 5. Bargnani developed nicely towards the end of last year, but this summer with the Italian team his progress seemed to stagnate. He isn’t good defensively (although he was showing improvement last season), and will be asked to carry a large load this year without Jermaine O’Neal to hide behind. He should benefit from playing one position all year, but will the team benefit out of it? Hedo Turkoglu, like Bargs, is a good offensive player. No-one doubts that. With Orlando last year he hit some monster shots, and generally was one of Orlando’s best players. That’s nothing to sneeze at. That said, defensive problems can be masked when you have Dwight Howard behind you. Offensive problems can be hidden much the same way. Turkoglu is 30 and isn’t exactly an ‘athlete’ by NBA standards. He had five dunks last year. He came from a team with one all world player, 1 all star, and a point guard who embarrassed Jose Calderon when the two clubs met up two years ago. As for DeRozan, yes he had a good final four last year. But look at his numbers from the whole season. Sure there was improvement, but he didn’t exactly blow people out of the water for the first half of the year. In fact, he didn’t do a lot of anything for the first 2-3 months of the season. The adjustment from college to the NBA is a much tougher transition than the transition from high school to college (especially considering that jump for him was from Compton High to USC, or a trip of about 22 minutes by car). How is he going to handle being on his own? How is he going to handle the responsibilities of being a man both on and off the court? How is he going to handle being asked to defend the Wades and Kobes of the world? Is too much being put on the young man’s plate at once? He’s shown himself to have a good attitude and seems to have all the tools, but asking a 20-year-old to put everything together for his first NBA game, or even season, is a bit much. He is very much a raw talent still.

The bench appears to be a source of strength for the Raptors, but looks can be deceiving. Jarrett Jack deserves minutes. Marco Belinelli and Amir Johnson need minutes to improve, as they are young and talented. Rasho Nesterovic and Reggie Evans were both good pickups for depth, but Rasho is getting up there in years. And while Reggie Evans gives 110% every time he’s on the floor, he just isn’t that skilled a ball player. Let’s take a look at last year’s stats – His rebounding rate is an outstanding 19.0% (meaning he grabs 19% of the available rebounds when he’s on the floor), but he has a turnover rate of 21.3% and a TS% of 51.4%, both of which are absolutely horrible for a big man. The man had a PER of only 10.4 and, considering the weight PER gives to rebounds, that is a red flag. You don’t need advanced statistics to understand Reggie’s limitations, though. Watch him play for just a few minutes and you will see a guy who stands out for his aggressive play, but is a liability on both offense and defense. He misses easy put-backs, fouls unnecessarily, and tries to do things he can’t do. I love the effort he brings and hope it’s contagious, but he can’t really be on the floor for longer than 10-12 minutes a game.

Sure the bench also has Antoine Wright, Sonny Weems and Quincy Douby, but realistically if the Raptors are counting on them for anything more than mop up duty, we’re all in a heap of trouble. The question facing Jay is how do you get the young guys minutes, while allowing the vets to play an important role (something all successful teams need) and keep everyone happy? Can you play Evans minutes that cripple the offense, even if he earns them through hard practices? What if Belinelli proves that Don Nelson was right to bury him on the bench in Golden State? Quincy Douby showed promise in summer league, but that’s meaningless. Amir Johnson has been in the league 4 years, and still hasn’t come close to this massive potential he is sitting on. The kid is loaded with talent, but it’s been 4 years and he hasn’t been able to put it together. After learning from Ben Wallace, Rasheed Wallace, and Antonio McDyess, maybe the question shouldn’t be WHEN he is going to put it together, but rather WHY he hasn’t thus far. If he doesn’t get consistent (and stop fouling so much) soon, suddenly the bench is counting on the offensively challenged Evans, the elder statesman of Rasho, and the enigma of Patrick O’Bryant. Eep.

Additionally, if Belinelli, DeRozan, and Wright all prove to be unable to start at the 2 guard, suddenly the Raptors may be facing a situation where backup PG Jarrett Jack needs to do so. He proved to be capable at the 2 last season in Indiana, and there are advantages to having two floor generals on the court at once, but this is not ideal in all situations. Against bigger 2s, Jack is overmatched. His good defensive instincts can’t compensate for the fact that he’s only 6’3 and 200 pounds.

Moreover, in the NBA, all good teams have a go-to guy. I’m talking about guys who can carry a team to a win when everyone else is having an off night. Granted the Raptors have Bosh but, and I say this as both a Bosh and Raptors fan, how many times in the past 4 years has Bosh lifted the Raptors on his shoulders and carried the club to a win? What about Jose or Bargs? How many times did Hedo lift Orlando to wins? The Raptors just don’t have ‘that’ guy who can create his own shot and score at will. It’s been a hole since Carter left and it continues to be a hole today.

Health is also an issue. We saw what a hampered Jose meant to the Raptors in the wins/loss column, even though his individual stats were still pretty good. I know Jose took the summer off and is in perfect health now, but what if Jose misses time again? Or picks up a lingering injury? Sure that can be said of most teams starting point guards, but on the Raptors, a team that seems to be based on ball movement, that impact is much more profound. Jose is the captain of the ship, without him they’re rudderless. Then there’s Bosh. Bosh has been pushing himself HARD this off season, adding over 20 pounds of muscle. This seems like a good thing, until you remember that’s not Bosh’s body type. His body was never intended to pack on too much weight, and sometimes bulk can be a hindrance. We haven’t seen how this will impact his movement; will his post moves be slower? Will his shot be the same? What about his overall speed, one of his best attributes. Will he be able to run the court the same? And what if Bosh picks up a nick or two (as has been known to happen?). Bosh won’t want to sit and watch in a contract year; he will play unless he is physically unable to. Even if that means playing worse than he should. We also can’t forget with age comes increased probability of injury. The Raptors have a few guys who are up there in years: Jose, Evans, Rasho and Hedo are all over 28 and have fairly considerable miles on their bodies. An injury to any of those would have a pretty negative impact on the club.

Then there’s the opposition. Where do the Raptors fit in the East? The top 3 are still Orlando, Cleveland, Boston (in that order until proven otherwise it says here). Chicago looked very, very good at tiems last year and should only improve this year; especially if someone can find some electrodes to bring Luol Deng back to life. Detroit brought in Charlie V and Ben Gordon, plus Chris Wilcox to address some frontcourt problems. Washington is getting back Gilbert Arenas, plus got a number of very serviceable parts in the (now very, very one sided) trade of the 5th overall pick. Miami is still Miami. KG may have said it, but if any athlete truly embodies the “Anything is possible!” statement it’s Dwayne Wade. Beasley should improve this year too, which will help Wade, since he’s basically been a lone wolf for the past few seasons. Atlanta kept things together and also should have their young guys getting better. Charlotte looked pretty good towards the end of last season and with continuity they should improve their record. The Raptors are in the mix with all those teams, plus Philly and Indiana. With only five playoff spots available after the big 3, can we say with any certainty today that the Toronto Raptors are a lock for the playoffs? Well considering the Raptors today have never played a meaningful game together, I’d say no. Can I be proven wrong? Sure. I hope I am. But a playoff run would necessitate a lot of things going right for the Raptors and a lot of things going wrong for other clubs. So in the immortal words of The Wolf, let’s not start sucking each other’s dicks just yet gentlemen.

Ah yes, a new season is upon us. It’s a time of wonderment, of unbridled optimism, of limitless possibilities. There are still a few weeks before the season starts and cold reality slaps the majority of the Association in the face, so I’m going to embrace the optimism. To those who know me, this is no surprise; optimism is practically my middle name. But this year just FEELS different for some reason. The Raptors have almost completely remade their team. With a new coach, new philosophy, new feel overall.

I firmly believe confidence is the most underrated intangible in sports. When teams get on a roll, each win seems to build on the last. That confidence allows for clarity in the last seconds of a chaotic game. It allows for proper plays to be run and shots to be taken properly, not rushed. Panic is the enemy of any coach. One of the biggest problems in the past for the Raptors was a lack of confidence. Of swagger. At the end of close games, particularly last year, you could feel the anxiety on the bench. Not a good look for a winner. So, why should this year be any different? Well, the Raps have a few things to build confidence around.

Firstly there’s Jay Triano. I’m an unabashed Smitch fan. I loved the intensity he brought to every game, to every play. I love how he expected the best out of every player in uniform and anything less would get your ass parked on the bench. That said, he wasn’t the greatest X’s and O’s guy. The lack of a proper plan on both offense and defense lead directly to many of the losses we encountered last year. Granted Smitch was gone by December, but unfortunately for Jay, it’s tough to implement a new philosophy mid-season. There just isn’t the practice time to change bad habits. This year, Jay is working with a blank slate. He has a defensive wizard to help him out (Iavaroni), and the confidence of being entrusted with helping prep the future Dream Teamers. Jay’s learned from the best, from Coach K to Jim Boeheim and Mike D’Antoni. Now, with a full training camp, he gets to pass everything he’s learned on to the Raptors, and frankly I’m excited to see what the guy can do. He’s definitely much more of a players’ coach, he’s good with the X’s and O’s and he brings a calmness to the bench. No matter what happens, he is in control. For the players on the court, that’s big. The player can look over to the bench and feed off that calmness, and that should translate into less panic on the court.

Next on the docket: the players who will be learning from Jay. One of the bonuses of the total remodelling of a franchise is that all bad habits are GONE. Everyone is starting fresh, everyone is on the same page. That’s one BIG good thing. The second is when you replace Jason Kapono with DeMar DeRozan, you get a huge upgrade all over the court. DeRozan was a decent defender and rebounder in college (I don’t think I need to mention his ups). Since then, all he’s done is add a ton of muscle and work his ass off in the practice gym. Bringing in Reggie Evans and Rasho Nesterovic are obviously a boost to the Raptors front court depth but their true value may be more in the intangible category. Every report out of Raptors training camp we’ve heard is how those two guys are forcing Bargnani to alter his game: to grow. They’re forcing him to work, to adapt, to bang, to fight on the court. We know about Bargnani’s emerging offensive prowess, but I’m looking for big things from him defensively. Hedo Turkoglu is not a good defender. There’s no two ways about it. Then again, before the JO trade the 3 was handled mostly by Jamario Moon. Nothing against Jamario, but if he is starting for your NBA team, missing the playoffs should not be coming as a surprise. Basically: if Turk can score 18+ points most games, the extra offense will make up for the step back on defense. Jose on the other hand is a mediocre defender who had a terrible year in 2008-2009. Last year, he was hampered with a bad hamstring (word on the street is it was an over 2-inch tear), which basically made it impossible for him to stay in front of his man. Having him back at full health is an improvement over last year defensively at the point. So the starting 5 overall loses some defense because of Hedo, but there should be improvement from within at the 1 and the 5. As far as rebounding goes, losing Shawn Marion is obviously painful to the team rebounding effort, especially when considering his replacement is Turk. But, remember they replaced the Parker/Kapono combo with DeRozan/Wright, plus replaced Voskuhl/Mensah-Bonsu with Nesterovic/Evans/Johnson. Time will tell, but I’d say with all these changes, it’s a wash or maybe a slight improvement on the boards. The wild card in that is DeRozan. He has the abilities, he just has to make the most of them.

And speaking of Rasho/Reggie/ Amir, the Raps’ 2nd unit is ready for war. With these guys, plus Wright, Jarret Jack, Sonny Weems, Patrick O’Bryant, Quincy Douby and Marco Belinelli coming off the bench, the Raptors have options. This group includes some good defenders and rebounders. There’s some offense here, as well. Jack proved to be a more than effective point guard last season. Amir Johnson is one of my favourite underrated players in the Association. He’s an athletic monster who goes hard every second he’s on the court. If there’s a loose ball near the hoop, watch out. He’s going up HARD. Rasho is Rasho, he has proved his worth over the years. All in all, I’ll go so far as to say the Raptors 2nd unit could be as strong as any in the Association. The bench’s main impact though will be at the end of games, in my opinion. I’m not sold on opponent’s FG% as a really great stat for one simple reason: a stop at the end of the game is worth more than a stop in the first quarter. The Raptors lost so many games in the last minute last year that it made my head and heart hurt. My liver didn’t talk to me for weeks after the season ended. If the Raptors now have the ability to sub in a few lockdown defenders for a big defensive stand, that is worth than a few extra wins this season. Especially when you pair this with the improved offense the Raptors bring to the court. The example I gave my cohort on this blog James was, say a team has in general a good defensive game. They give up in three quarters an average of 23 points against. But they blow up one quarter and give up 35 points. The opponent’s FG% might not be that bad, but that still would count in my book as a bad defensive game (for me, a defensive collapse in the 4th causing a loss is always going to be a bad game). Go check tape of the first Nets/Raptors game last year. Granted, the Nets played well in the 2nd half, but if Carter wasn’t left open not once but TWICE at the end of the game, the Raptors probably win. And by probably I mean almost certainly. In fact, I don’t want to talk about this. I feel sick again.

How can I make myself feel better…. oh yeah! The Raptors offense is, in a word: wow. Jose back at full health to distribute the ball; DeRozan flying all over the court, tracking down loose balls, throwing down dunks and generally slicing through the defense; Bosh with his newly developed size and desire to get to the post more; Bargnani with his continued growth from last year and the Turk impact to hit big shots and find open teammates make the Raptors starting 5 INCREDIBLY dangerous. All can shoot, all can pass, all can get to the basket. If any team tries to double team any single Raptor, watch out. These guys can and will find an open man, and he can and will make the right shots and passes. The bench gives numerous different looks as well. Amir Johnson is a beast around the basket offensively (youtube him – if you’ve never really watched him before, get ready to fall in love, Toronto). Belinelli can shoot and is an underrated ball handler. Jack is worthy of being a starting 1 or 2 on some teams. He can handle the ball, he can shoot, he can get into traffic in the lane, he’s tenacious, he wants to win, and he’s a natural leader. The sky is honestly the limit for this club on offense. I don’t have anything else to say about it. It should be a masterpiece.

That is the biggest reason the Raptors will be amongst the top tier of the Eastern Conference this year. The Raptors, unlike most teams, and unlike what conventional wisdom or any basketball coach worth his salt would normally say, can win giving up over 100 points a game. Why? Because the Raptors can score 110 a game and not blink. The team is almost impossible to defend. They will shoot a high percentage. They have guys who will fight and scrap for loose balls. They have lockdown defenders and veteran leaders on the bench, they have a healthy Jose Calderon looking to rebound, and most importantly, they have Bosh. Bosh took last year as a personal insult. He wants to be the best. He wants to be the 3rd guy next summer in the Wade/LeBron talk. The only way for that to happen isn’t to improve his own stats (which are already pretty mind-blowing), but to improve the overall success of the team. Bosh needs to prove that he can lead a team to wins, to the playoffs, and beyond. If he wants to seriously be considered in the LeBron/Wade conversation there is no other way. Bosh knows this. He saw success coming from the post rather than the elbow, so he bulked up to stay healthy enough to bang under the hoop all year. He has 4 guys to pass the ball to who are dangerous players. And most importantly, the dirty secret of the Raptors this year: Bosh doesn’t need to carry the team to wins. If Bosh has an off night there are enough other weapons that can carry this club. Bosh won’t be counted on to break down defences as time winds down on the game clock now that Turk is around. Bosh won’t be forced to backup at center due to injuries, thanks to the depth that currently exists up front. He won’t be seeing as many double teams due to the overall firepower of the club (who gets left open – Jose? Bargnani? Turk? DeRozan?). All Bosh has to worry about this year is himself. So to recap: Healthy Jose, HIGHLY motivated Bosh, improved Bargnani, upgrade at EVERY SINGLE OTHER POSITION, except possibly defence and rebounding at the starting 3 (but improvement off the bench and in other spots).

So where are the extra wins to get the Raptors into the playoffs coming from? Well, the rest of the Eastern Conference may not be as strong as advertised when you look at it closely. Miami is counting on Jermaine O’Neal’s health this year (check his quotes – it’s freaking groundhog day for him) – any Raptors fan can tell Heat supporters how that’s going to go. Philadelphia got worse, Atlanta stayed the same, Boston has to seriously start looking at life without KG being KG (if they don’t have him at or near full strength, there’s no sugar-coating it, they will be much worse), the Knicks actually might have gotten worse (if that’s possible) and the Nets definitely did. In fact, the only teams that improved are Orlando, Cleveland, Charlotte, Washington and Chicago. Charlotte’s improvement MIGHT net them the 8th seed, Orlando and Cleveland were already one and two in the east. So that means two teams in direct competition with the Raps improved, while 6 or 7 either stayed the same or got worse. Including potentially every team in the Raptors division. Even if the Raptors had thrown out the same line-up as last year, they’d probably improve by 2-3 spots, but they aren’t throwing out the same team. The Raptors are throwing out potentially the best offense in the entire Association. 4 more wins last year and the Raptors leapfrog Indiana, Charlotte, New Jersey and Milwaukee. All of whom got worse this offseason. 7 more wins and they leapfrog Detroit (who may or may not have jumped off a cliff this offseason) and make the playoffs.

I went through last season’s results and picked out some losses that don’t sit well with me. Last season, the Raptors lost 129-127 to New Jersey in OT (in a game that could arguably go down as the worst loss in franchise history); 98-97 to Portland. They lost to Detroit, Philly, New Orleans, New Jersey again (by 7), Golden State (by 6), Milwaukee by 10, Indiana by 7, Milwaukee AGAIN by 11, MEMPHIS by 8 (scoring 70 points), the Knicks by 30 (the freaking Knicks!), Detroit by 4 in OT, Charlotte by 13 and Charlotte by 26 back to back (!), the Knicks by 9, Indiana by 29, and Washington by 2. Theoretically, every one of those should be a win. Obviously teams lose games they should win all the time, but that right there is 19 games that could easily have been wins. If they had won 9, suddenly the Raptors were 42 and 40 and in the 6th spot.

Last year, the Raptors scored 99 PPG and allowed 102. Even if the team defence doesn’t improve from last year (and I think it will), the offense scoring 106+ points a game translates to wins. Pure and simple. Even if that’s only an extra 4 or 5 that they would have lost last year, add those with the loses that were games thrown away last year and suddenly the Raptors are looking at 46-47 wins and the 4th spot overall. Is it that easy? Absolutely it is. The competition got worse and the team got better. Good teams beat the teams that they should beat. This club is built to withstand injury. This club is built to score. And this club is being moulded right now into a team that can play passable defense. The injection of heart (guys like Evans and Rasho, plus the extra motivation of Jose and Bosh to prove to themselves and the world that they are among the best ballers in the world) and leadership also boost the intangible qualities of the club. With a little confidence and some swagger to go with it, the kind that can only come from seeing success and building on it, and this could be a team to fear. If they get on a roll, watch out. This is a good team, now they just have to prove it.